Francis Berger
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Marriages Up in Hungary: A Step in the Right Direction (Maybe)

11/27/2019

4 Comments

 
There are some encouraging signs in the Hungarian government's massive programs to promote marriage and childbirth in an effort to halt the demographic decline in this small, landlocked nation. According the Central Statistics Office, marriages are up 20% in Hungary in the first nine months of this year. Certainly encouraging if the statistics are accurate. Sadly, the birth rate has gone nowhere within the same time frame. So the big question now is, will this surge in marriages lead to a higher birthrate in the short-to-mid term?

Well, that all depends. As I have mentioned before on this blog, the communist regime launched similar schemes in the mid-1970's. These programs caused a spike in birthrates for three or four years before the rates dropped to even lower levels. The communists learned the hard way that material incentives are simply not enough. Orbán's initiatives, though admirable and noble, will mean and do very little in the short-to-mid term if it is not supported by the right kind of motivation, that is by a spiritual awakening or, in some cases, spiritual deepening among the newly married couples.

If the newlyweds approach their marriages and (hopefully) children from a spiritual perspective, then the efforts the Hungarian government is currently expending stand a chance. If, however, the vast majority of these newly married couples are motivated to marry and have children for purely materialistic (economic) reasons, then Orbán's programs will end up exactly where the communist programs ended up - in failure. 

For those interested, link to the article describing these developments is here. 
4 Comments
Bookslinger
12/1/2019 14:53:11

There is a web site that I frequently reference for population statistics:
www.populationpyramid.net.

You can see which countries have a normal pyramid, exaggerated pyramid, a straight silo, or an inverted pyramid, or combinations thereof based on age.

Another thing to keep in mind is that Immigration can mask an inverted pyramid.

Japan has the most pronounced inverted pyramid as far as I know. That is likely because they are not using immigration to mask a low native birth rate.

That web site also breaks down the population by sex. And you can see how India and China each have tens of millions more males than females. China, and India each have over 15 miilion more men than women just in the marriage/child-bearing age brackets.

India's imbalance is actually worse than China's, in spite of China's abortion/infanticide rate due to their (now discontinued) one-child policy.

These imbalances could possibly drive two things: mass migration, as in a diaspora in search of brides,... or canon fodder for armies.

Reply
Francis Berger
12/2/2019 08:41:04

Great comment, Books. Thanks for the info. It appears population dynamics are a mess all over the world.

Reply
Bookslinger
12/2/2019 12:19:05

At populationpyramid.net Sometimes, the graph doesn't update when you choose a new country or year. Just click "refresh" on your browser and wait a second.

Reply
Francis Berger
12/2/2019 15:16:26

@Books - Okay, thanks!

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