Francis Berger
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Some Good News On The Marriage Front

2/17/2020

5 Comments

 
The institution of marriage appears to be undergoing a bit of renaissance in Hungary thanks to some government incentives aimed at promoting family and childbirth in an effort to stem demographic decline.

I had, and still have, some reservations about the multitude of family support schemes the Orbán government has launched over the past few years for the simple reason that other governments in other countries have attempted similar programs in the past, most of which proved ineffective. In fact, Hungary's former communist government initiated comparable policies back in the 1970s - policies that, after a brief three or four-year upsurge in marriages and births, ultimately failed.

The long-term success of the current government's programs depends much on Hungarians' attitudes to marriage. I suspect the communist policies of the past proved fruitless primarily because they did little to address the spiritual malaise underlying the reluctance to marry and have children. Though the incentives the communists provided did motivate people to marry and have children, this motivation proved ephemeral and evaporated the moment the funds ran dry.

In other words, the family support programs the communist government launched did not resonate with people beyond the level of the purely material and was not supported by any metaphysical shift in thinking about the importance of family. The current increase in marriages hinges on one simple and undeniable fact - that contemporary Hungarians approach marriage and child-rearing at a level that is deeper than the material. If the growth in marriages today is sustained by a change in consciousness about what marriage is, then the programs stand a chance. If not, they will inevitably end up being as ineffectual as the communist policies of the past.

Here's hoping the former prevails over the latter. 

In any case, the news itself is quite encouraging. Marriages are up 84% since 2010 and more couples tied the knot in 2019 than at any other point in the past thirty years. Even more encouraging is the surprising drop in the divorce rate, which has plummeted 67% since 2010, meaning only about 33% of marriages in Hungary still end in divorce. Granted, 33% is still a high number, but it is a marked improvement on the past and, perhaps more meaningfully, a far lower divorce rate than those found in many other European countries. 

Though this marriage boom has yet to lead to a baby boom, the right ingredients for that to happen appear to be in place. True, it's still early days, but one can't help but harbor a little hope that Hungary may be turning a corner - a deeply life-affirming one at that.  
5 Comments
Bruce Charlton
2/17/2020 17:07:21

The fact that the govt are even trying, seems to confirm a hunch (not much more) that Central Europe has (if it so chooses) a different destiny than Western Europe and Britain. This would, if taken up, I think be built round a revival of the Catholic church (whether Roman or Orthodox).

In the West I can't see any possibility of a church led revival - and if Christianity does revive it would not be in that way.

Ultimately, I think that Central Europe may have a destiny that is more collective than the West, and more individually creative than the East...

(I think I may have absorbed this idea from Steiner and his disciples! - since he was Central European, and had much to say about Folk Souls and the like.)

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Francis Berger
2/18/2020 05:41:11

@ Bruce - I see the things in the same way, but like you, only at the 'hunch' level. Central and Eastern European countries have recoiled from Western Europe on issues like multiculturalism, mass migration, gay rights, etc. Most of these countries are questioning the 'freedom' the West offers and considering other options.

But its all very tenuous. Who knows how these places - Hungary included - would react to a bad economic downturn or some false flag operation. A bad election result would be enough to quickly realign these countries with standard "European values:"

I haven't read much Steiner myself, but I do think about him from time to time ( outside of your posts on him). Interestingly enough, I usually think about him when I go to Austria, which is only ten kilometers from where I live.

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Bookslinger
2/19/2020 04:42:53

I browsed over to
http://www.populationpyramid.net/hungary
to get an idea of what the vital stats are like, by age.

Maybe BC can chime in with a better analysis with his medical knowledge, but I noticed a few things:

Is the skewed sex ratio of ages 29 and younger likely due to sex-selection abortions?

The skew is the other way starting at age 55 and up, and even more pronounced. It's as if men start dieing off at age 55. Is that due to poor health care? Work stress? Alcoholism?

Granted, age 55 is the normal "knee of the curve" as far as mortality rate goes, but the male/female difference is very pronounced.

The current population of child-bearing age people is not too bad compared with older age cohorts. But the population of those just behind them (not yet of child-bearing age) really drops off.

The current "child-producers" will need to be encouraged to have at least 3 children. But the up-and-coming generation, the current/living minors, will need to be encouraged to have at least 4 children.

Frank, Bruce, what's your assessment of that graph?

Reply
Francis Berger
2/19/2020 10:13:05

@ Books - The current government policies set a three child minimum for the benefits - that is, couples who apply for the support programs must agree to have three or more children. In this sense, it seems the government is aware of the problem you have raised. For example, women who have four or more children will be income-tax exempt for life.

As for the older levels on the pyramid - we must remember Hungary remained communist until 1989, which means those in their 50s were in their 20s and 30s when communism collapsed. Life under communism was conducive to poor lifestyle choices, which accounts for the high death rate of men in that age bracket. Of course, life was no picnic after communism collapsed. Ironically, under liberalism, things actually worsened for the average person, and remained worse for the better part of two decades. It's only in the past decade that some semblance of stability and optimism has returned to Hungary.

One factor that is not addressed is emigration, which is still quite significant. Wages in Hungary are fairly low, making the higher wages offered by other EU states a real pull factor for Hungarians under the age of 40. Some only leave temporarily, but others opt to remain wherever they find a good job.

It's going to take a radical shift in consciousness to turn that pyramid positive. As I mentioned in my post, I don't think that shift in consciousness has occurred yet, but signs of a possible change are evident. The next decade will be crucial.

I don't think the skewed sex ratio had anything to do with sex-selection abortions. The modern Left might accuse Hungary of being 'patriarchal', but as far as I can tell, an obsessive preoccupation with a child's sex does not exist here. Girls appear to be just as highly valued as boys.

Reply
Bookslinger
2/19/2020 18:49:58

According to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_sex_ratio
a 1.05 male/female ratio at birth is in the normal range.

Here's the data from populationpyramid.net/hungary
I used a spreadsheet to get the % Male, and M/F ratio columns.

Age Male Female Pct Male Male/Female ratio

70 - 74 190751 285020 0.40093 0.669255
65 - 69 288884 381229 0.431097 0.75777
60 - 64 287562 348757 0.451915 0.824534
55 - 59 263135 290102 0.475628 0.907043
50 - 54 318463 329688 0.491341 0.965953
45 - 49 388418 385111 0.502138 1.008587
40 - 44 409741 404943 0.502945 1.011849
35 - 39 325171 319807 0.504158 1.016773
30 - 34 312996 299168 0.511294 1.046222
25 - 29 323916 309831 0.511112 1.04546
20 - 24 265562 252381 0.512724 1.052227
15 - 19 249731 236115 0.514013 1.057667
10 - 14 247724 235637 0.512503 1.051295
5 - 9 229364 218060 0.512632 1.051839
0 - 4 237052 224090 0.514054 1.057843

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